Friday, Grain Comments
Jerry Welch - InsideFutures.com - Fri Nov 15, 12:29PM CST


Jerry Welch, Commodity Insite!
Call me at 406 -682 -5010
Ennis, Montana 59729

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Below are my morning comments as found in my twice a day newsletter, Commodity Insite. The information below as sent to my subscribers and brokerage clients around 7 a.m this morning. Hope you find something of interest.

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grain complex

Trade yesterday was low in volume and nearly void of movement. Soybean prices closed with gains of 11/2 cents for front January futures with corn gaining 1/2 cent a bushel. Wheat prices were down 13/4 in Chicago and elsewhere. The day was akin to watching paint dry.

However, in the case of soybeans, the market did hit a new low for the move and close higher which is an upside key reversal. But the upside k-r certainly left much to be desired! Still, it was a k-r and that is my favorite kind of chartpoint to respect, make notice of and try to follow.

Unfortunately, grains are mixed today regardless of what soybeans did yesterday. Today, soybeans are fractionally higher with wheat off 1 cents and corn in the red by fractions. Later today, however, Export Sales will be released and later yet a monthly soybean crush report comes out. Plus, there are active negotiations going on with China regarding trade.

Keep in mind China is notorious for releasing important market moving news over a weekend. Will a trade deal be announced this weekend? We shall see! But a strong argument that a deal is at hand came yesterday when China lifted restrictions against US poultry imports. If China is ready for a deal, they would not, in my view, have done that.

Don't sell grains on weakness. And by the way, the upside key reversal for soybeans remains in play since the market is fractionally higher.

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Points to consider:


**As I type furiously away, there are strong rumors that a trade deal with be signed very soon with China which is why sharp gains being seen with the Dow Jones.


**The USDA earlier this week pegs unharvested acres in the US to be more than 11 million. The amount of unharvested acres is, in theory, larger than the estimated soybean carryover.


**The soybean crush report released earlier today came in at 175.4 million bushels above expectations of 168.00 million bushels.


**Soybean meal basis December futures is $3.60 higher and trading at levels not seen since October 24. And January soybeans that are now trading at $9.20 closed on October 24 at $9.47.


**Soybeans and soy meal posted an upside key reversal yesterday and there is modest follow through strength today. Such a chart signal should be respected.


The points to consider above does not hint that I am suggesting to buy any grain. I am suggesting not to sell grains. But there are enough, things going today and in light a weekend looms large that soybeans and soy products may be headed higher rather than lower. For the weekend, I would not be short any grain and probe the long side of soybeans with a tight stop.

If you wish to know more about Commodity Insite drop me a line at commodityinsite1@gmail.com. Or, call me at 406 682 5010. And never forget there is no substitute for timely and accurate information.


The time is 12:30 p.m. Chicago



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